Psychology and Imperfect Information
January 18, 2009
When cities propose new rail transit lines they often have to submit rigorous environmental impact assessments, which inevitably propose bus routes as possible alternatives. Proponents of buses (many of whom have little intention to use the new transit line regardless of the vehicle type) typically cite buses as significantly less expensive and more flexible. Apples to apples comparisons of projected ridership also show that rail will likely have higher ridership than buses. I have always wondered exactly why this is the case?
There are a few theories that I know floating around. The most common is that buses are stereotyped as the poor man's ride, while trains cater to the better-off. Another belief is that the complicated zig-zag routes that many buses take disorient rides, as opposed to the simple and well known routes that rail lines have (even if the routes aren't actually simple, well-drawn transit maps creates that perception). Still another suggests that the flexibility that is often cited as a good thing is actually a risk that people don't want to take. I can attest to this, as a DART bus route I relied on to get to work last winter altered its route on the first Monday in March.
Perhaps the most significant reason we psycholically dislike buses is because we never know exactly where they are or when they're coming. Tom Vanderbilt writes:
Such technology currently isn't an option with most buses, and my own experience from last week reinforces this idea. I have gotten pretty good at timing when I need to leave my house in the morning and work in the afternoon to catch a ride without much waiting. I usually leave my office on the 11th floor right at 5:00pm and, depending on whether an elevator is waiting for me or not, walk around the corner and wait 3-5 minutes before the bus arrives. On Thursday I arrived at the same time as usual. I noticed some of the usual suspects standing in the shelter and figured the bus would be arriving shortly. It didn't. So we waited. and waited... and waited...
It didn't help that the temperature in Cleveland on Thursday was zero degrees Fahrenheit and every minute that ticked by felt like an hour. Where was the bus? Nobody knew. Maybe the engine died from the extreme cold; perhaps the driver got violently ill; or maybe he or she was keeping bad track of time and departed five minutes before the scheduled time. We will never know. Having real-time bus information in this instance could have been incredibly helpful.
If it was known ahead of time that the bus was having some problem and that it wasn't going to show up, perhaps I would have stayed in my office for 15 extra minutes and surfed the web. Even if I was already outside, being able to tell the other rides what was happening would have made everyone feel a little better, even if it didn't shorten the amount of waiting time. Humans like to be in control, and I suspect if technology could allow transit systems to provide more information to riders, it would certainly eliminate a lot of the uncertainty that keeps some people from riding in the first place.
There are a few theories that I know floating around. The most common is that buses are stereotyped as the poor man's ride, while trains cater to the better-off. Another belief is that the complicated zig-zag routes that many buses take disorient rides, as opposed to the simple and well known routes that rail lines have (even if the routes aren't actually simple, well-drawn transit maps creates that perception). Still another suggests that the flexibility that is often cited as a good thing is actually a risk that people don't want to take. I can attest to this, as a DART bus route I relied on to get to work last winter altered its route on the first Monday in March.
Perhaps the most significant reason we psycholically dislike buses is because we never know exactly where they are or when they're coming. Tom Vanderbilt writes:
Talking about the city’s “Transit Tracker” program, which allows people to get real-time info on bus arrivals via their cell phones, Hansen mentioned a study that had been done in the U.K. of a similar program. What was noteworthy was that people using the service felt that the bus service itself had improved, that more buses were running, that they were running closer to schedule, even though none of this was empirically true.Yesterday I proposed that all transit agencies release schedule data to the public so that developers can create software applications to make it easier for riders to get from point A to point B; but this still relies on schedule data, which means unexpected changes in service won't be reflected. Currently, more and more rail stations are installing technology to alert riders of real-time arrivals and potential service changes. For instance, if a minor station fire causes trains to back up for several minutes, riders waiting to board at a station further down the line won't be completely in the dark as to what is happening. Even if there is no change in the wait time, people feel less anxious when they understand the cause for the delay than when they don't.
Such technology currently isn't an option with most buses, and my own experience from last week reinforces this idea. I have gotten pretty good at timing when I need to leave my house in the morning and work in the afternoon to catch a ride without much waiting. I usually leave my office on the 11th floor right at 5:00pm and, depending on whether an elevator is waiting for me or not, walk around the corner and wait 3-5 minutes before the bus arrives. On Thursday I arrived at the same time as usual. I noticed some of the usual suspects standing in the shelter and figured the bus would be arriving shortly. It didn't. So we waited. and waited... and waited...
It didn't help that the temperature in Cleveland on Thursday was zero degrees Fahrenheit and every minute that ticked by felt like an hour. Where was the bus? Nobody knew. Maybe the engine died from the extreme cold; perhaps the driver got violently ill; or maybe he or she was keeping bad track of time and departed five minutes before the scheduled time. We will never know. Having real-time bus information in this instance could have been incredibly helpful.
If it was known ahead of time that the bus was having some problem and that it wasn't going to show up, perhaps I would have stayed in my office for 15 extra minutes and surfed the web. Even if I was already outside, being able to tell the other rides what was happening would have made everyone feel a little better, even if it didn't shorten the amount of waiting time. Humans like to be in control, and I suspect if technology could allow transit systems to provide more information to riders, it would certainly eliminate a lot of the uncertainty that keeps some people from riding in the first place.
All of the reasons you already gave sound, ah, reasonable to me. Another one is that, to a car driver, buses seem ungainly, smelly, and, above all, slow. If you're driving on a street that also has buses, you spend a lot of effort trying to get past them ... you feel like they're constantly in your way. It's kind of painful watching them go around corners too. I don't think it's much of a leap from this to a kind of general distaste for city buses. On the other hand, rail vehicles just seem to glide away without straining so much.
I don't think making bus schedules more easily available is really going to solve the problem, just because their schedules do seem so unreliable. Real time info seems like the best approach for buses if it's technically feasible.
I would guess that rail with a dedicated right of way (as opposed to streetcars sharing the street with cars!) has a much more predictable schedule generally speaking, so better schedule information seems useful there.
Daniel points out that the CTA in Chicago has real-time data for tracking the location and status of buses. Having played around with their program online, initially it looks very cool, although I guess I would need to really experience it to determine how well it objectively works.
I agree that the more dedicated the right-of-way, the better able transit vehicles are able to stick to a schedule. At the same time, I think if you can improve the perception that bus service is more on time than it actually is, you've still accomplished something..
My folks used to live in San Francisco, and when I went there we always took buses and it never bothered me. Back home in Dallas, I cringe at the thought of taking the bus, but I love to take the train if I have a reason to. So what's the difference?
The buses in San Francisco seem light and airy compared to the ones here in Dallas, and they don't seem to groan and moan the way they do here. The trains here in Dallas seem light and airy too, and they never have to make hard turns. When they stop and start, they don't sound like they're about to die.
And they're never in a hurry. Bus drivers often drive like they're competing at Daytona. Trains go fast but they can't be pushed.
To put it another way, buses are always complaining, and they're so dramatic! I feel like a burden when I ride the bus.
Except when I'm in San Francisco instead of Dallas.
I can think of a couple of advantages that trains have:
* Trains have more space than busses - you feel more comfortable about getting into one.
* Trains are smoother to ride: Steel wheels/steel rails vibrate and jerk around much less.
* Trains are also much quieter: Almost all urban trains are electric, almost all busses are diesel.
* Trains will get you there faster: Urban rail systems often go upto 50 or even 60mph, busses are rarely faster than 30mph. Trains don't stop at every lamp post either.
* Trains only have to share their "road" with other rains, which makes them more predictable - your train journey will be just as quick at rush hour as it is late at night.
* A 45 minute ride on a train is a breeze. A 45 minute ride on a bus is an ordeal.
So, while I'm all for better information systems, it's certainly possible nowadays and not too expensive, even the best information system in the world won't get passengers off the train and onto the bus (unless the trains are gratuitously neglected and underfunded, of course).
My standard response for why I like buses better than trains is this:
"If I have to get in an overcrowded metal box with a bunch of loud, smelly stranger then I sure as hell don't want to have to stop at traffic lights."